Analyze renewable energy capture prices and cannibalization effects across US ISO/RTO markets
Generation-weighted average prices by technology across major US electricity markets
Avg Capture Rate
84.1%
Lowest Cannibalization
ISO-NE 92.8%
Most Cannibalized
ERCOT 70.5%
ISOs Tracked
7
Solar capture rate = generation-weighted avg LMP / baseload avg LMP. Below 100% indicates cannibalization.
Bars falling short of the 100% line indicate the degree of price cannibalization for solar generators in that market.
Annual solar capture rates declining as installed capacity grows, especially in ERCOT and CAISO
Year-over-year capture rate changes for solar. Negative YoY indicates increasing cannibalization.
| ISO/RTO | Region | Baseload ($/MWh) | Capture ($/MWh) | Capture Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ERCOT | Texas | $35.2 | $24.8 | 70.5% | -6.2 pp |
CAISO | West | $44.8 | $33.6 | 75.0% | -4.8 pp |
PJM | Mid-Atlantic / Midwest | $39.5 | $36.5 | 92.4% | -2.1 pp |
MISO | Central | $32.1 | $27.3 | 85.0% | -3.5 pp |
NYISO | Northeast | $42.3 | $38.1 | 90.1% | -1.9 pp |
SPP | Central / South | $28.4 | $22.7 | 79.9% | -4.4 pp |
ISO-NE | New England | $46.1 | $42.8 | 92.8% | -1.4 pp |
Projected solar capture rate under three solar build-out scenarios. ERCOT is the US market most exposed to solar cannibalization due to high penetration and limited interconnection.
Capture rate determines the actual revenue a renewable project earns relative to wholesale prices. A solar project in a market with a 70% capture rate earns 30% less per MWh than the headline wholesale price, directly affecting project economics, PPA pricing, and debt service coverage.
ERCOT has seen the steepest solar capture rate decline in the US. With 30+ GW of solar capacity interconnected or under construction in an energy-only market with limited transmission to neighboring regions, midday prices frequently go negative during spring and fall shoulder months. Solar capture rates have fallen from 92% (2019) to roughly 70% (2025).
California's duck curve remains the canonical example of solar cannibalization. Midday prices collapse as solar floods the grid, followed by a steep evening ramp as solar drops off and demand peaks. CAISO solar capture rates have declined from 88% to 75% over the same period.
Battery storage achieves effective capture rates above 100% by charging during low-price solar hours and discharging during high-price evening peaks. Co-located solar+storage projects can achieve blended capture rates 15-25 percentage points above standalone solar, fundamentally changing project bankability in cannibalized markets.
Data sources: EIA Open Data API (hourly generation and demand), CAISO OASIS (LMP data), ERCOT market reports, PJM Data Miner, MISO market reports. Capture rates are calculated as generation-weighted average LMPs divided by time-weighted average (baseload) LMPs for the same period. Values represent 2024-2025 observed ranges and are updated periodically.